Real estate data in Harborfields remains essentially unchanged in the last few months. Although closings lag behind new listings, the number of homes taken off the market keep the total inventory at a stable level of approximately 160 homes. At the current rate of closings we have over a 12 month supply of homes on the market in Harborfields. On Long Island prices have been declining approximately .5% per month but that number is different based upon individual zip codes. It cannot be said too often- real estate is local! Actually the four different zip codes in Harborfields each have different data. We are currently in a slow season of the market and it is unlikely that there will be any significant econoiminc changes in the near future. What we have now is probably what we will have untill at least Spring or late Winter.. But remember-homes are still selling that are well priced-in great condition- and easy to show. There are good buyers for specific homes.

It is obvious that the local real estate market is reflecting the national picture. As of October 15th there are 151 homes listed in Harborfields. In the last month there were 30 homes that came on the market. During that period only 5 homes went to contract and 5 homes were withdrawn.. Once again we have more than a year’s supply of homes on the market. To add to the picture current interest rates have gone up a half percent and the lending institutions have become stricter in approving loans. Even the best minds find it difficult to give advice to clients. For the buyer there are many goods deals to be had but the prices may go down even further. For the home owner it is a difficult time to sell, but prices next year may be even lower. At this point I can only give this advice.  Unless you have a compelling reason to sell, this is not an opportune time. If however you do need to  make a move, as long as you are staying in the same type of market, you can feel pretty secure that the loss may feel on the sales end will be more than offset by a lower price on the home you want to buy. If you are buying a first home you have been wasting the rental payment while mortgage rates are still historically low. Real estate values continue to be zip code affected. If you want a handle on where you value is today give a call.  261-5877

This past Friday, Saturday and Sunday I  gave seminars at the annual Live South Real Estate Show held at the Huntington Hilton. There were over 30 exhibitors from Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and  Virginia.

They had booths, slide shows and  receptions. There were representatives with information on each distinct community. Many made available introductory visits for interested buyers.

I have been involved with this event for many years and am the sole New York agent for this event. I was born and raised in Virginia. Bob went to college in Tennessee and we own a vacation home on Hilton Head Island. Bob has sailed from Long Island to Savanah several times and we know TheChesapeake and Delmarva Peninsula.

Have you been thinking about a second home or perhaps buying an investment or retirement home while the prices are low? A way to start might be to purchase a lot that you can build on when the time is right. I think you would be pleasantly surprised how far your dollar can go in the south and the quality available there.

Give a call if I can share information with you or even help you zero in on an area that offers a lifestyle to make you happy.

Look forward to talking to you 631-261-5877.

We all know that real estate is local. Long Island is not Florida or California or Ohio.

But “local” could now mean zip code by zip code.

In Huntington Station in 2007 there were 117 sales in the first half of the year.

In the first half of 2008 – only 77 sales in Huntington Station.

In contrast Melville went up from 43 to 53;

Northport down from 79 to 59.

Some interesting numbers as we look at Greenlawn and Centerport.

In the same time periods – first half of 2007 compared with the first half of 2008, the medium sales price in Centerport rose from $580,000 to $605,000. But in Greenlawn it went up from S460,000 to $548,000.

What does all this mean to a specific homeowner? Probably very little.

Medium prices can be impacted by the sale of just a few homes, but the number of sales is important. Sales in some areas are down as much as 30%. It is still a soft market.

The homes that sell quickly are well priced and in great condition. Pricing, condition and accessibility are still key.

This last week I was asked by a Centerport resident to  help them price their home for sale and discuss the local market and its activity.

Listed below is some of the data we discussed:

• Prices in Suffolk County between May 2007 and May 2008 fell 11.6%
• Zone 20, Huntington Township - Difference between Listing price and selling price 7.6% on average - many homes had reduced their price more than once
• Zone 20, Huntington Township has a 19.1 month supply of unsold houses
• Centerport 11721 prices down 9.89% on average in the last year
• Number of homes sold in Centerport 11721 compared with the previous year down 37.5%
• Average days on the market 156
• Available houses in the 600,000 to 1,000,000 range - 18
• Number of houses sold in the last 30 days between $600,000 and $1,000,000 was 3  – resulting in a 6 months supply
• New York City transactions down 38% in one year
• Leased commercial space in Long Island

–        January 2008 - 1 million sq ft  -

–        May 2008   -      440,027 sq ft .

Homes are selling. Actually this year is on track to be the 7^th highest year in history for home sales. But it is not always easy. Homes must be aggressively priced, in good condition and easily available to be shown.

If you would like information on another area (of Harborfields) please call for a private, confidential meeting.

If you have sold a home in the past your broker probably presented you with a CMA “Comparative Market Analysis”. You obviously examined past sales, homes that did not sell and homes currently on the market. If other homes were somewhat similar to yours you might have priced your home somewhere in the middle, or add a percentage for negotiating room or expensive upgrades.

In a stable market or a market that is rising this may work. Will it work now? Probably not. Look at this in another way. If in your area and school district there were 100 homes on the market – but only 10 buyers actually bought  one in the previous month – what are your chances?
If only one in 10 is chosen – why would yours be one of the fortunate ones? In some way your home must stand out – condition-size- property- price something must cause your home to rise above the competition so you will sell.

We are in a price driven market. Yes, be sure that your home is clean, uncluttered and in good repair. This is the minimum buyers expect.

Today instead of adding 5% to a "comparable" price what about listing your price 5% below the competition.

You will sell faster and at a better price because you will be a better value than the other homes competing for your buyer.

Harborfields inventory of homes is up slightly during this last week. For the last few months there have been 120 to 125 homes listed for sale in Harborfields. There are currently 130 homes listed. In the last 7 days there were 9 new listings but only 1 home sold. It is common for listings to increase in the spring; therefore this does not necessarily suggest a trend. Our affiliates in New York City and the Hamptons are now reporting some softening of their markets. In contrast Bloomberg.com reports that New York prices were up for the year 1.1%.

My own interpretation of the market is that the rate of decline of home values has slowed and we may actually be seeing a leveling off of prices. Obviously this interpretation runs counter to national data but then real estate is always local. I feel we must watch closely the increase in listing numbers versus sales for the next 60 days in order to determine the impact on our Harborfields market place.

In February I started working for a family relocating from California. After a number of conversations I began a search for the "right” home. From a pool of 80 homes, I inspected 45. Over 2 visits I showed them over 30 homes. They narrowed it down to 5 that we revisited. They chose one and we are now in contract set to close at the end of June.

This morning I got the following e-mail:

“ Dear Ruth Ann,

It was a pleasure to work with you and we definitely benefited from your immense real estate experience and knowledge of the area to select our future home. We hope that we will continue to see each other once we move there. See you soon. ”

This is my 31st year in this profession. It is this kind of appreciation that brings joy to real estate. This is why I love my job!

The current real estate market is forcing both agents and Offices to leave the industry. More than 15% of the agents on the Island have dropped out in the last year. Here in Harborfields, HarborGates has closed it’s doors and merged with the Huntington office of Coach Realtors.

Last year there was a decrease of 22% in the number of homes sold in Nassau and Suffolk. Sales volume was down 37 %.

A further reduction in agents could result from the new training requirements for new agents. Current law requires only 45 hours of training-new requirements will require 75 hours.

Considering the importance of a real estate transaction, 75 hours of training by itself is woefully inadequate.

Some of the larger firms, such as Prudential Douglas Elliman, have the resources to provide intensive training. New agents who join small firms are often on their own.

In the last 2 weeks, I have driven by or physically inspected over 80 homes. I am working with 3 different buyers with price requirements ranging from $550,000 to $900,000.

There are a number of excellent choices for the buyers particularly in the $500,000 to $650,000 range. Some of these are homes in original condition but the areas can command close to $1,000,000 for a renovated home.

The sellers are obviously in a more challenging position. Most buyers want homes in near perfect condition. Years ago people were willing to fix up and renovate. Also, the speculators who would buy – renovate and flip – are not in the market at this time.

With over 30 years of experience, I recognize this is a more “normal” marketplace.

Buyers are demanding. Sellers are adjusting to the reality of the market place and reducing prices. Homes are selling.

At a Public Open House last Sunday a couple stopped by who were from the south shore. They had followed signs to the open house in Salem Ridge. In a discussion I found out that they had no information about Salem Ridge, the school district, the township amenities, or the different neighborhoods. They were leaving it up to chance to find the right home for their family.

Harborfields (like many places on Long Island)  consists of a number of communities: Salem Ridge, Timber Ridge, Huntington Beach, Knollwood Beach, Robin Park, House Beautiful, etc. If you are not knowledgeable about the area in which you want to buy a home , you must get some source of local knowledge: a friend, relative, co-worker or a local realtor. If not, there are neighborhoods you may never learn about, let alone the unique strengths of each that will most meet your family needs.

A number of years ago a former administrator for the district bought a home-only to find out later that he was one street out of the school distrtict. The internet-following-signs-reading ads-can help you begin a search. They cannot replace in-depth knowledge of an area.

This week I held a broker's Open House  on a lovely classic oldie in Greenlawn Village.

17 brokers attended. This is a  large number for any season let alone nearly freezing temperatures.

Last week I put two homes in contract. There were multiple offers on one and the buyers bid against each other. This was reminiscent of the seller's market in 2006.

I know what the media is saying at this time about burst bubbles and mortgage fears, but somehow something different is happening here.
I have been saying that my personal business was showing signs of greatly increased interest and activity. I know when my "bread and butter" (median priced) houses start to sell the more expensive homes generally follow.

Homeowners in Huntington township are understanding that we are in a declining market. They are either pricing home realistically or reducing them to attract the buyers out there.

Those buyers are beginning to appreciate the value and  along with great mortgage rates are feeling more comfortable to assume the financial responsability of home ownership.

Of course , I earn my living by selling homes. However, it is very satisfying to see the joy that comes  when I'm able to bring a buyer and seller together to give each of them the result they are seeking. I am so pleased to see locally a more normal market place.

I will continue to let you know how our "spring" market is doing. It is only a few weeks away.

If you need help to make your real estate dream come true, give me a call.

Is something happening?

In a previous blog I indicated that there was increasing activity on the houses I have listed for sale. This activity is continuing. Even yesterday which was a “ football day”, some of my listings had multiple showings. As I indicated before, it will take a month or more to see if this activity holds up.

?Today’s Real Estate market is a mixed bag. It’s hard to know what is really happening.

Economic reports continue to be pessimistic but on a very local level something else is going on. Last Sunday four different realtors called to make appointments to show one of my houses. I am getting an increasing amount of showing on several of my listings. Yet, this is January in a down market.

I can only relate this to occurrences in 1987. In the late spring of that year I found that my personal buyers were putting the brakes on. Relocation families would arrive - spend days looking at our inventory - and then go back to their home states to stay. In October of that year we had the stock market crash. I believe sometimes a portion of the public can sense and/or predict a trend before the experts do.

Maybe this current phenomenon is just an exception. I will know in a month.

Real Estate in Perspective

The real estate news on Long Island has been dismal this year and 2008 may not be much better. But there is another side to real estate.

In spite of the gloom and doom of recent news reports on the state of the nation's housing, there is plenty of good news, the most recent of which comes from the National Association of Realtors.

Laurence Yun, the chief economist for NAR, had plenty of positive news for Realtors at last month"s conference. Yun attributed much of today’s sub prime mortgage problem to greed. Wall Street wanted the 10-12 percent return that sub prime mortgages yielded as opposed to the smaller returns from more traditional mortgage products. His take on the Wall Street types: " They gambled. They lost”.

Yun’s outlook for 2008 sees a shift from greedy speculators to serious homeowners. 2008 will be a year of opportunity where there will be serious, healthy business. Furthermore, Yun predicted that the market returns to normal by 2009.

First mortgage rates are historically low. Lending institutions have tightened lending practices but for the borrower with good credit and a down payment, rates are low. Our first mortgage some 40 years ago was at 6 %. In the early 80’s rates went as high as 18%.

For the total US market the year 2007 is on target to be the fifth best year in the history for the total number of sales. In 1970 there were 1.6 million homes sold - 3.2 million in 1990, 7 million in 2005 and approximately 5.5 million in 2007. Over time the purchase of a home is still a sound investment while being a source of pride and comfort.

Unfortunately during 2004-2006 up to 40% of the home purchases were by speculators, investors and second homebuyers that fueled a hot market. We are now experiencing a more “normal market”.

Obviously this does not take away the pain of a homeowner who was counting on a  2006 price for retirement or other purposes.  For the homeowner that purchased five or more years ago the appreciation is still significant. Yes our prices are currently down, but during the last decade we have doubled our home prices and in some cases more.

Our township does have some homes that are financially affordable to first time homebuyers. The Federal Reserve said that between 1995 and 2004 the average renter accumulated $4,000 in wealth. In the same period the average homeowner accumulated over $180,000.

My experience has been if a buyer stays in their home a minimum of 3-5 years, they will make money. In fact taking in to account that appreciation is based on total house value rather than the much smaller 10-20% down payment, a home purchase even in today’s market gives a huge return if the house is not sold for the 3-5 year time frame.

I believe  that today first time homebuyers are anxious to own a home but have been made fearful of moving forward by the “coverage” in print and media. The falling interest rates and lower asking prices will motivate many to make their first purchase before too long. Actually those who wait too long will possibly miss the “bottom”. Once the first time buyers start purchasing then the  “move up” market will begin to fully restore the “ normal marketplace”.

In the 30 plus years I have been selling in this market, I believe this is the best window that buyers can hope for. There are excellent deals and excellent financing rates.

This is a particularly good time to buy if you are moving up. You may have lost $25 to $50 thousand, but the home you would be buying may have come down $50 to $100 thousand.

If a buyer waits prices and rates will go higher.

One final thought. A house is finally a home. It is not just an investment. Home ownership is still an American dream.

The Spring Market is just around the corner. Give a call if you need our help 261-5877.

Activity in Harborfields remains somewhat static. We still have 124 homes for sale. 1 closed this last week; there were 3 new listings and 1 home went to contract .The good news is that the number of new homes listed remains equal to the number of homes sold. There are also homes being withdrawn from the market or due to expire soon. Therefore, no increase in the inventory is the sign of a more stable market place, if it continues. Many owners are holding off putting their homes up because of the holiday season.  Good for sellers; not as good for buyers. However, pricing continues to drive the sales that happen.  For specific homes that have sold, go onto "recent sales" on our web site.

Some news that is more challenging. A Newsday article reported a quote from Pearl Kamer, chief economist of the Long Island Association, the region's largest business group. She predicts "a price decline of about 5% from 2006" Kamer says she expects prices to decline between 10% and 15% by 2009, when prices will begin ticking up at 2% to 3% a year as we approach 2010.

Projections that far out , are of course subject to many variations and changes. Her thinking is not that different from many other economists. Yet real estate is very local and those projections may not hold for a zip code, specifically for a neighborhood or even for a unique or special house. Still, it adds more fuel to the current "wait and see" approach held by many buyers.

To keep current with our local market we must follow trends very carefully and know that any major financial or political event can start or exacerbate momentum.  We will keep you posted. Check in to update yourself regularly.

It’s cold out there! Want to move? Maybe even to a warmer climate?Perhaps your home should be on the market???

Spring and fall are traditionally the most active real estate periods. But what about December – January – February?

This past week-end  4 of my listings were shown. There were 2 offers made, one is going forward to Contract and I’m continuing to negotiate on the second home that got an offer.

There are good reasons to have your home on the market now:

1. The inventory is lower. Buyers have fewer houses to choose from.
2. Buyers that are out looking at this time of year are much more serious. People that are only marginally interested have social events to attend rather than looking at homes for sale.
3. Your home might be at its best with holiday decorations, fireplace glowing and delicious smells in the kitchen.
4. Mortgage rates have dropped for well qualified buyers and they anxious to get those good rates locked in.
5. Next spring prices may be lower and normally more people put their homes on the market at that time of year.

Don’t miss what may be an opportune time.

The site has been redesigned from a static site to one that will enable us to give you updates and insight into real estate, and particularly Harborfields real estate. In addition, you can respond with your comments or questions.

It has always been said that real estate is local and that has never been more true.Country wide prices are down for the year in the 5% range. That is also true for Suffolk County. But there are notable exception such as New York City where prices have risen. When we drill down to just Harborfields and look even more closely at our zip codes we get a different and more confusing picture.

Currently there are 136 homes for sale in Harborfields. In the last 30 days we had 17 new listings. But only 10 sold in that time period. Average sale price was $661,789. Average days it took to sell was 116 . To sell off the entire inventory without any new homes coming on the market would take over a year! As I put up new data pay attention to the ratio between homes listied and home sold in a time period. It  will be a rough indicator of where the market is going.

Regarding the data for each zip code in Harborfields. I need to check with Multiple Listing Service  before I post that information. One of the numbers did not seem accurate and I want to verify threir numbers.

If you have q question about a particular home or area please give us a call at  631-261-5877